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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the largest turnaround receives the award. However, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or just the most shocking shock.

However the latest field is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and longtime underperformers ascending together. Under an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still